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| #111725 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 AM 19.Sep.2006) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/24. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. GORDON IS NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PASSING BY GORDON TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING 55W LONGITUDE SHOULD ENSURE THAT GORDON WILL MAINTAIN ITS RAPID EASTERLY MOTION. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AZORES ISLANDS IN 18-24 HOURS...AND THEN AFTERWARD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN IBERIAN PENINSULA AS A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 90 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE EYE HAS REMAINED NEARLY CLOUD-FREE AND DISTINCT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...SO THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 90 KT. GORDON'S FAST FORWARD SPEED IS MINIMIZING ANY ADVERSE EFFECTS FROM THE 40-50 KT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ENCROACHING ON THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST...SO THE ONLY FACTORS INHIBITING INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE COOLER SSTS OF 22C-23C AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FAST FORWARD SPEED...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO INDUCE ANY RAPID WEAKENING BEFORE GORDON REACHES THE AZORES ISLANDS. THEREFORE...GORDON IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AZORES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 38.1N 38.7W 90 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 38.3N 33.6W 75 KT...APPROACHING AZORES 24HR VT 20/0600Z 38.8N 26.1W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 20/1800Z 40.8N 17.9W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 21/0600Z 43.6N 8.8W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 22/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
