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| #1136933 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 02.Jun.2023) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023 The tropical cyclone has not become better organized this morning, and it remains in a sheared state. The low-level center of the system is located to the southwest of a rather ragged-looking area of deep convection. Despite its unimpressive appearance, earlier scatterometer data indicated that the cyclone was close to tropical storm strength. A Dvorak satellite intensity estimate, using a shear pattern measurement, is unchanged from the previous cycle and the current intensity estimate is held at 30 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning. Center fixes from satellite imagery indicate that the depression continues to move slowly southward with an initial motion estimate of 180/4 kt. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning or numerical guidance from the previous advisory. During the next day or two, the cyclone is expected to move southward to southeastward at a slightly faster forward speed on the western side of a mid-level trough over Florida and east of a ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico. The latest official track forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks. It appears that the window of opportunity for the cyclone to strengthen is closing, or has already closed. Vertical shear is likely to remain strong or become even stronger as the system moves farther south underneath an upper-tropospheric jet over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This shear, combined with some drier air to the west of the trough over the extreme eastern Gulf, should cause a weakening trend to commence by this evening. The official intensity forecast shows the system degenerating into a remnant low in 36 hours. Based on the track and intensity forecast for this system, coastal watches and warnings are not necessary at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 27.0N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 26.2N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 24.7N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 23.3N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0600Z 22.5N 84.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
