|
Show Selection: |
| #1136961 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 02.Jun.2023) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023 Convection has persisted throughout the morning, although the tropical cyclone remains highly asymmetric and poorly organized. The low-level center is located southwest of the large area of persistent deep convection. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found no evidence of intensification this morning, and the Dvorak satellite intensity estimate continues to support a steady current intensity of 30 kt for this advisory. The depression is moving slowly south-southeastward with an initial motion estimate of 175/4 kt. Numerical guidance and the official track forecast remain similar to the previous advisory. The system is expected to move southward to southeastward and accelerate its forward speed somewhat during the next day. During this time, the depression is expected to move along the western side of a mid-level trough over Florida and east of a ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico. The official track forecast is a blend of the dynamical model consensus tracks and is generally consistent though slightly east of the prior forecast. The Hurricane Hunters will continue investigating the system for the next several hours, and a short-lived increase to tropical storm intensity cannot be ruled out. However, conditions are expected to become increasingly unfavorable for intensification later today and tonight. A combination of increasing vertical shear and drier air to the west of the trough over the extreme eastern Gulf is expected to cause the system to weaken in the next 12-24 hours. The official intensity forecast shows the system as a remnant low in 36 hours and dissipated by early Sunday. Based on the track and intensity forecast for this system, coastal watches and warnings are not necessary at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 26.7N 86.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 25.6N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 24.2N 85.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 23.2N 84.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi |
