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| #1137145 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 03.Jun.2023) TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Arlene Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023 500 PM EDT Sat Jun 03 2023 Arlene has lacked organized deep convection for quite some time now, since about 07Z. There have been a few short-lived small bursts of convection in the northeast quadrant, but they have been getting quickly sheared off and lack organization. Therefore, Arlene no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone and the system is now a remnant low. The initial intensity is estimated to be 25 kt based on a partial ASCAT pass, surface observations, and the earlier reconnaissance data. Strong vertical wind shear and dry air should continue to cause weakening, and this system is expected to open into a trough on Sunday. The low pressure area is moving south-southeastward at 6 kt. A turn to the east is expected tonight and that motion should continue until the system dissipates. The remnant low will likely enhance rainfall over portions of southern Florida through tonight. This is the last NHC advisory on Arlene. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 23.7N 84.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 04/0600Z 23.6N 83.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
