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| #114025 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 AM 02.Oct.2006) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 02 2006 SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOL SSTS HAVE TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON ISAAC THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND BUOYS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES HAVE NOT BEEN MUCH HELP THUS FAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 50 KT AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS GIVEN THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. ISAAC IS CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/36. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SLOWS ISAAC CONSIDERABLY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE ADJACENT EXTRATROPICAL LOW. IN DEFERENCE TO THE CURRENT ACCELERATION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE GUIDANCE AND INDICATES THAT ISAAC WILL BE PASSING NEAR OF OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND LATER TODAY. ISAAC IS QUICKLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE GFS... UKMET...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO AND SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 44.3N 55.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 49.0N 51.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 03/1200Z 52.0N 47.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 04/0000Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH |
