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| #1140473 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 22.Jun.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 500 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023 Satellite images and earlier satellite-derived surface winds indicate that the area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring in the central Atlantic now has a well-defined center and sufficiently organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression. The depression has a partially exposed low-level center with a small area of deep convection to its west. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The depression is moving just north of west or 280/9 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn to the west-northwest and accelerate on the southern side of a mid-level ridge for the next few days. After that time, the depression is forecast to turn northwestward towards a weakness in the ridge east of the Leeward Islands. The model guidance is fairly well-clustered, and the NHC official forecast lies near the model consensus aids. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual strengthening over the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm in the next day or so. Beyond 72 h, global models agree the vertical wind shear should increase significantly and weaken the cyclone. The NHC intensity prediction starts out conservatively and is near lower end of the guidance envelope, most similar to the LGEM model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 10.9N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 11.3N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 12.0N 45.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 13.1N 47.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 14.5N 50.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 16.0N 52.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 17.6N 55.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 20.9N 60.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 23.3N 64.6W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci |
