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| #1140519 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 AM 22.Jun.2023) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023 1100 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023 Bret is nearing the Lesser Antilles and remains close to hurricane strength. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the storm this morning and found winds to support maintaining the initial intensity at 60 kt. Bret remains very titled in the vertical, with the low-level center located near the southwestern edge of the main area of deep convection. The aircraft found the strongest winds on the north side of the circulation, with generally light winds on the southwest side of Bret. The tropical storm continues to move westward at 12 kt on the south side of a subtropical ridge. Since the ridge is expected to remain in place, Bret should continue its westward motion but at a faster pace. This should take the storm across the Lesser Antilles this evening and overnight and then across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday. Although the models are in fair agreement, there is some spread in the forward speed among the model solutions. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and remains on the fast side of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the GFS and ECMWF models. Bret is expected to maintain its intensity when it moves across the Lesser Antilles tonight. However, weakening should begin shortly after that due to a pronounced increase in westerly shear and dry air intrusions. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and in line with the HCCA and IVCN solutions. Bret is still expected to degenerate into an open wave Saturday night or early Sunday before reaching the western Caribbean Sea. There is a risk of strong winds and heavy rainfall for several islands within the Lesser Antilles regardless of exactly where the center crosses the island chain. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Bret is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles this evening and tonight as a strong tropical storm. 2. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for St. Lucia, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Martinique and Dominica. There is a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves along the coast within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Additional watches or warnings are possible for some islands in the Lesser Antilles later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 13.8N 57.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 14.0N 60.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 14.3N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 14.5N 66.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 14.6N 70.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 14.5N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
