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| #1140520 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 AM 22.Jun.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 1100 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023 This morning's satellite presentation consists of a sheared cloud pattern with the center of an elongated surface circulation located near the northeastern edge of the deep convective mass. Multiple low cloud swirls have emerged from the convection about 50 nm east-southeast of the previously noted primary surface center. A recent METOP-A/B scatterometer pass showed the strongest winds (30-32 kt) situated over the northeast quadrant. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The depression is expected to remain in marginally favorable atmospheric conditions and over warmer-than-normal oceanic temperatures during the next 3 days. Through the remainder of the forecast, vertical shear is forecast to increase significantly as the depression approaches a deep-layer mid-Atlantic trough extending from the central Atlantic to the Greater Antilles. Accordingly, a weakening trend should be underway by 72 hours. The official intensity forecast is an update of the first advisory and consists of a blend of the consensus and deterministic models beyond day 3. The initial motion is estimated to be 285/13 kt and a west-northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is forecast during the next 4 days. Near the end of the period, a northwestward motion is expected as the depression rounds the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge and enters a growing weakness over the western Atlantic. The NHC forecast reflects no significant change from the previous one and is based on the tightly clustered, highly reliable multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 11.3N 42.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 11.8N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 12.8N 47.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 14.0N 49.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 15.5N 52.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 17.1N 54.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 18.6N 57.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 21.7N 62.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 24.0N 65.2W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts |
