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| #1140589 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 22.Jun.2023) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023 500 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023 The center of Bret is very near Barbados. Surface observations from the island have recorded wind gusts of tropical storm force during the past few hours. Sustained tropical-storm-force winds have recently been reported in St. Lucia. Based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and an ASCAT-C pass from earlier today, the initial intensity has been nudged downward to 55 kt, and the strongest winds are north of the center. Radar data from Barbados and satellite images indicate that Bret is strongly sheared with deep convection mostly confined to the northeast part of the circulation. Bret has begun to accelerate and is now moving just south of due west on the southeast side of a subtropical ridge. Since the ridge is expected to remain in place, Bret should continue westward at a quick pace. There continues to be some forward speed differences among the model solutions, but given recent trends and the overall steering pattern, the NHC track forecast remains on the faster side of the guidance envelope. This should take the storm across the Lesser Antilles this evening and overnight and then across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday. Bret will likely maintain its strength while it moves across the Lesser Antilles tonight. However, progressively stronger shear and dry air should cause the storm to gradually lose strength on Friday and Saturday. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Dissipation is expected to occur on Sunday, following the global model guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Bret is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles this evening and tonight as a strong tropical storm. 2. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for St. Lucia, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Martinique, and Dominica. There is a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves along the coast within the warning area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 13.4N 59.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 13.5N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 13.7N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 13.9N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 13.9N 72.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 13.8N 75.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
