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| #1140649 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 22.Jun.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 1100 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023 The satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone has improved this evening. Deep convection has become more persistent during the past several hours over the western portion of the circulation. GOES proxy-visible satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data indicate the center has moved farther underneath the expanding cold dense overcast tonight. An ASCAT-B pass at 00 UTC showed an area of 30 to 35-kt winds in the northern semicircle of the cyclone, which supports upgrading the depression to Tropical Storm Cindy with this advisory. Despite some drier mid-level air in the surrounding environment, modest strengthening is forecast in the near term as the cyclone moves over 27-28C waters with generally weak vertical wind shear during the next couple of days. By Sunday, Cindy is forecast to move under the influence of an upper-level trough extending from the central Atlantic to the northeastern Caribbean Sea. The increasing deep-layer shear associated with this feature is likely to cause the small cyclone to weaken early next week, and the official NHC forecast shows Cindy degenerating to a 30-kt remnant low by day 5. Cindy is moving west-northwestward at 285/12 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue on a west-northwestward heading during the next several days as it is steered by a subtropical ridge to its northeast. This track keeps Cindy well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The guidance is in fairly good agreement, and the latest NHC track forecast remains close to the multi-model consensus aids and is very similar to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 11.7N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 12.4N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 13.6N 49.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 15.1N 52.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 16.7N 54.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 18.3N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 19.8N 59.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 22.3N 64.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 24.6N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
