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| #1140701 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 23.Jun.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 500 AM AST Fri Jun 23 2023 Cindy is continuing to show signs of improvement based on satellite imagery. Deep convection with cold cloud tops of less than -80 degrees C are near the estimated low-level center, an indication the vertical wind shear is likely weakening. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt based on a blend of the 3.0 and 2.5 subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, respectively. The reasoning behind the intensity forecast is unchanged. SHIPS model guidance indicates that Cindy will remain embedded within an area of weak vertical wind shear for the next day or so, shielding it from the surrounding drier mid-level airmass. Given the relatively conducive environmental and oceanic conditions, gradual strengthening is expected. Beyond 48 h, the deep-layer shear is forecast to increased which, in combination with the dry air, will likely weaken Cindy early next week. The official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous prediction. Cindy is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt. This motion is expected to continue during the next several days as Cindy moves around the southwest periphery of a subtropical ridge. The track guidance for the cyclone has shifted northward in the 3-5 day range, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged northward as a result. This track still keeps Cindy well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 12.1N 46.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 12.9N 48.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 16.0N 53.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 17.7N 56.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 19.4N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 20.9N 61.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 23.5N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 25.7N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci |
