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| #1140737 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 AM 23.Jun.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 1100 AM AST Fri Jun 23 2023 Cindy appears to be gradually strengthening this morning. A curved band formed overnight to the west of the center and has wrapped around on its southern semicircle. A SSMIS microwave pass at 1003 UTC also showed this band with the center becoming more embedded within the larger cirrus canopy. Subjective Dvorak estimates were T3.0/45-kt from SAB and T3.5/55-kt from TAFB. The latest objective intensity estimates were a little on the lower side with 41 kt from ADT and 39 kt from SATCON. We also recently received a partial ASCAT-B pass at 1233 UTC, but it likely did not capture the highest winds on the northeast side of Cindy's circulation. A blend of the subjective and objective intensity guidance supports a current intensity of 45-kt for this advisory. It seems that Cindy has a 24-h window to intensify further, while vertical wind shear (both deep-layer and mid-level) remains under 15 kt as the storm traverses 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures in a marginally moist mid-level air environment. However, beyond that period, shear out of the northwest increases markedly as the system approaches the same upper-level trough shearing Bret, and this increase in shear is likely to import drier mid-level air from that direction. The intensity guidance is largely in agreement that Cindy will intensify for the next day or so, but are in less agreement of how quickly the storm will weaken after the shear increases. Given the small size of Cindy, it seems more likely to be adversely affected by the expected negative environmental conditions and steady weakening is forecast beyond that time, with the system likely becoming a remnant low sometime in the 4-5 day time frame. This intensity forecast is a little bit under the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids after 24 h. Cindy continues to move to the west-northwest at around 290/14 kt. This general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days as Cindy moves around a mid-level ridge centered to its east-northeast. Even though a weakness in the ridge is forecast to become more pronounced north of Cindy in the 3-5 day time period, the system is also forecast to become more vertically shallow, and be more steered by low-level ridging which will remain in place. The latest track aid guidance shifted ever so slightly northward compared to the previous cycle, and the new track forecast was shifted a little in that direction. This track forecast is a bit south of the consensus aids, but assumes Cindy will likely be a more shallow system by the end of the period. Cindy's track forecast remains well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 12.5N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 13.6N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 15.2N 52.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 16.9N 55.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 18.7N 57.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 20.2N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 21.8N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 24.0N 64.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 26.7N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin |
