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| #1140782 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 23.Jun.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 500 PM AST Fri Jun 23 2023 Since the previous advisory, the convective structure of Cindy has become more anemic, with the earlier banding structure degrading into more scattered convection distributed around the low-level circulation. It is possible some nearby dry air has been entrained into the circulation, limiting more organized convection this afternoon. The lackluster convective structure was also observed on a recent 1852 UTC SSMIS pass. Dvorak T-numbers have either held steady or decreased slightly, and the initial intensity will remain 45 kt for this advisory. While the shear has not yet increased over Cindy and sea surface temperatures underneath remain sufficently warm, the apparent dry-air entrainment might be a limiting factor on more robust intensification in the short term. After 24 h, Cindy is forecast to encounter higher shear from the northwest which should induce a weakening trend. The intensity guidance is a bit lower than the previous cycle, and the NHC forecast also shows a slightly lower peak intensity than earlier. Under continued shear from an upper-level trough, Cindy is still forecast to become a remnant low and dissipate by the end of the forecast period. However, one thing worth mentioning beyond the forecast period is that some of the guidance (most notably the GFS) shows the possibility of Cindy regenerating near Bermuda, though that is beyond the scope of the current forecast. Cindy continues to move to the west-northwest, perhaps a bit more poleward than before at 295/14 kt. Not much has changed with the forecast track philosophy with a similar west-northwestward motion expected to continue as the system is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its east-northeast. As the system weakens, it is more likely to be steered by the low-level ridging which should maintain this motion through the end of the forecast period. The track guidance made another small shift to the northeast, and the latest NHC track forecast was similarly adjusted a bit in that direction, but remains notably on the south side of the guidance envelope, fairly close to the latest ECMWF forecast. This track forecast remains well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 13.3N 49.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 14.5N 51.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 16.3N 53.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 18.1N 56.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 19.9N 59.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 21.6N 61.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 23.1N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 24.8N 65.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin |
