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| #1140831 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 23.Jun.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 1100 PM AST Fri Jun 23 2023 After a lull in convective activity earlier today, deep convection associated with Cindy has increased tonight. A cold dense overcast with cloud top temperatures colder than -70C has expanded over the center of the cyclone, and a curved band of convection has developed over the northern portion of the circulation. Unfortunately, no recent microwave or scatterometer data are available to assess the structure and intensity of Cindy. The initial intensity of 45 kt is supported by objective UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates, and a T3.0 subjective Dvorak estimate from SAB. Cindy has a brief window to strengthen during the next 12 h or so. Then, deep-layer shear is forecast to increase over the storm by Sunday in association with an upper-level trough over the central Atlantic. This, along with potential bouts of dry air entrainment, should cause Cindy to weaken through early next week despite warm SSTs along its track. The latest NHC forecast shows Cindy reaching its peak intensity in 12-24 h, followed by gradual weakening thereafter. While most the global models agree that Cindy will open into a trough by the middle of next week, the 18 UTC GFS and HAFS runs show the cyclone remaining intact and deepening near and beyond the end of the forecast period. While this does not seem like the most likely outcome, it cannot be completely ruled out at this time. For now, the official NHC forecast continues to follow most of the non-GFS guidance and shows dissipation by day 5, but note that future forecast changes may be necessary. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 295/13 kt. A general west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next few days as Cindy is steered by a subtropical ridge to its northeast. The track model spread increases early next week, with the stronger GFS showing a sharper recurvature and a track on the far right of the guidance envelope. The NHC track forecast is slightly to the right of the previous one, but still falls to the left of the multi-model consensus aids given the weaker NHC intensity forecast. Cindy is expected to remain well to the east and northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 13.9N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 15.2N 52.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 17.1N 54.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 19.1N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 20.9N 59.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 22.5N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 23.7N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 25.6N 64.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
