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| #1140869 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 24.Jun.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 500 AM AST Sat Jun 24 2023 Deep bursts of convection over Cindy's center, with cloud top temperature less than -90C, have been forming since the last advisory. A microwave pass at 0526 UTC showed a curved band wrapping around the southern semicircle of the estimated low-level center and a relatively aligned vortex. However, weak-to-moderate northwesterly shear may still be affecting the storm and could explain the most recent warming trends in the cloud top temperatures. A blend of the subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB support a slight increase in the initial intensity to 50 kt. The window for Cindy to strengthen further is coming to end. Vertical wind shear is expected to increase within a day as the storm nears an upper-level trough over the central Atlantic and forces surrounding drier mid-level air into the circulation. These unfavorable environmental conditions are expected to weaken the storm after a day or so. The GFS (and the regional models dependent on its boundary conditions) still forecasts Cindy to maintain a coherent low-level vortex and re-strengthen beyond the forecast period. This scenario does not seem as likely given the small size of the cyclone, and the NHC forecast favors the weaker intensity guidance that shows dissipation by day 5. However, changes may be necessary to future forecasts. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt. A general west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next few days as Cindy moves along the periphery of a subtropical ridge to its northeast. The spread in track model guidance increases early next week, with the stronger GFS showing a sharper recurvature and a track to the right of the other models. The NHC track forecast is slightly to the right of the previous one, but still falls to the left of the multi-model consensus aids given the weaker NHC intensity forecast. On the current forecast track, Cindy is expected to remain well to the east and northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 14.6N 51.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 16.0N 53.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 18.1N 55.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 20.4N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 22.2N 59.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 23.6N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 24.8N 62.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 26.8N 63.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci |
