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| #1140870 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 24.Jun.2023) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023 500 AM AST Sat Jun 24 2023 Bret is passing just to the north of Aruba, while producing a healthy burst of deep convection that has obscured the center in infrared satellite imagery. Radar data from Curacao indicates that the strongest activity is to the north of the ABC Islands, although a band of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving over Aruba. Scatterometer data showed peak winds of 35-40 kt to the north of Bret`s center, and along with overnight reconnaissance data, the storm`s intensity is lowered to 40 kt on this advisory. Over 30 kt of northwesterly shear is affecting Bret, which is expected to continue through the weekend. Therefore, Bret is still forecast to degenerate into a trough by 36 hours, although global model fields suggest this could happen as early as tonight. Bret continues to move quickly toward the west, or 270/16 kt, steered by subtropical ridging over the western Atlantic. Bret is forecast to remain on this general trajectory during the next several days, with its remnants reaching Central America on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 13.1N 69.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 13.2N 72.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 13.4N 75.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
