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| #1140909 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 24.Jun.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 1100 AM AST Sat Jun 24 2023 After Cindy exhibited a bursting pattern with deep convection covering the center overnight, more recently morning visible satellite images show the low-level center accelerating and becoming exposed on the northwest end of a small area of colder than -70C convective cloud tops. It appears that the forecast increase in northwesterly shear is beginning to transpire. Despite the recent degradation in structure, a blend of both objective and subjective intensity aids still support a current intensity of 50 kt for this advisory, though this might be generous. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Cindy later today and should provide a better assessment of the storm's intensity this afternoon. Now that Cindy is beginning to feel the effects of increased northwesterly shear, its likely the system has peaked in intensity with weakening not far behind. Shear in the EC-SHIPS guidance is expected to increase to 30 kt and shift southwesterly in a day or so, and that combined with a fairly dry mid-level airmass should contribute to continued decay over the next several days. The latest NHC intensity forecast now shows Cindy weakening as soon as later today. Beyond 48 h, there remains uncertainty in the guidance as to if Cindy will dissipate. The GFS shows some sort of center reformation to the north or northeast in the day 3 period, though the GFS has a habit of being too aggressive with center redevelopment under sheared convection (see what recently transpired with Bret). In contrast, the ECMWF continues to show Cindy opening up into a trough axis sometime in the day 3-4 period, though it should be noted that some of the ECMWF ensemble members try to regenerate the storm later on, though not as strong as the GFS. Given the small size of Cindy's current circulation, it seems more likely Cindy will succumb to the increasingly unfavorable environmental conditions and dissipate before the end of the forecast period, and the NHC track forecast continues to indicate that scenario, with post-tropical status in the day 3-4 period and dissipation thereafter. However, this forecast is of lower than usual confidence, and its possible the storm could regenerate or reform as suggested by the GFS and high-resolution HAFS-A/B models. The storm has accelerated a bit to the northwest this morning, with the estimated motion at 310/17 kt. This same general motion is expected to continue, albeit a bit slower over the next couple of days as the system remains steered by a low- to mid-level ridge located to its northeast. Beyond the next 24 h, the guidance spread increases quite a bit, again primarily due to the GFS and some of the regional hurricane models suggesting the system attempts reformation to the north or northeast in the day 3-4 time frame. However, the NHC track favors more of a blend between the latest ECMWF and TVCA consensus aids, which are further south and west, assuming a weakening tropical cyclone that continues to follow the low- to mid-level steering flow. On the current track, Cindy should pass well the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands Sunday into Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 16.4N 53.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 17.8N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 20.0N 57.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 21.9N 59.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 23.5N 61.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 25.0N 62.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 26.0N 63.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 28/1200Z 28.5N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin |
