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| #1141016 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 25.Jun.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 500 AM AST Sun Jun 25 2023 The low-level center of Cindy remains located on the northwestern edge of a burst of deep convection, although night infrared satellite imagery indicate that the low-level circulation is becoming less well defined. The latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are lower than the previous advisory, and the initial wind speed has been lowered to 45 kt. Cindy continues to move towards the northwest with an initial motion of 320/18 kt. Cindy should move generally in that direction with a decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The new track forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies near the consensus aids. The intensity forecast is high confidence in the near term with strong shear continuing to cause Cindy to weaken during the next day or two. This will likely result in the cyclone degenerating into a trough or broad low, and the current NHC prediction is for dissipation in 48 hours, perhaps conservatively. However, there are some global models suggesting that the remnants of Cindy could find an area of lighter shear and interact with an upper-level trough that would allow the system to regenerate in several days. While this is a plausible solution, the system will likely be over cooler SSTs at that time within only a small area of potentially conducive upper-level wind conditions. Thus, regeneration will not be included in the official forecast at this time, but this scenario will be continue to be monitored. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 20.3N 57.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 21.9N 58.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 23.7N 60.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 25.2N 61.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/Blake |
