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| #1141051 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 25.Jun.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 1100 AM AST Sun Jun 25 2023 This morning, the low-level center of Cindy is once again separating away from overnight deep convection. In addition, the circulation also appears to have become more diffuse, and available cloud motions from the GOES-16 derived motion winds suggest that the circulation could be close to opening up on the earth-relative frame. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are either steady state or have decreased from the previous cycle, and objective estimates from ADT and SATCON are also lower. The initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission is scheduled to investigate Cindy this afternoon and will hopefully provide more data to determine if the storm still has a closed circulation. Cindy remains on a northwestward track this morning at 315/15 kt. Not much has changed with the track forecast, with the system's northwestward motion expected to gradually slow down as it moves into a weakness in the low- to mid-level ridging. The latest NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and remains close to the track consensus guidance. The highly asymmetric structure of Cindy is currently a result of 30 kt of southwesterly vertical winds shear displacing convection away from the low-level center. If anything, this shear is forecast to increase further over the next 24 hours, likely leading to further weakening. Even the GFS, which yesterday was adamant about keeping the system stronger in the short-term, is now indicating degeneration into a trough over the next couple of days. The latest NHC forecast also shows the tropical cyclone opening up into a trough in the next 36 h and this could occur sooner than indicated here given how diffuse the circulation is currently. After Cindy dissipates as a tropical cyclone, there remains support from global and regional hurricane model guidance that Cindy could regenerate farther to the north in several days when the shear begins to abate. Enough uncertainty exists in the future thermodynamic environment to not explicitly show regeneration in the official forecast at this time, but this scenario will be continue to be monitored. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 20.9N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 22.3N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 23.9N 60.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin |
