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| #1141089 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 25.Jun.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 500 PM AST Sun Jun 25 2023 This afternoon, we have had a wealth of in-situ observations, both from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft sampling Cindy, in addition to a NOAA buoy that very recently was in the center of the tropical storm. The aircraft observations indicate that Cindy still has strong winds in its northeastern quadrant, but well removed from the center and more related to transient convection. Both the plane and the surface buoy indicate that the minimum pressure with Cindy continues to increase, now near 1010 mb. The wind field on the western side of the storm is also quite diffuse and is barely closed given the light west winds observed on the south side by the aircraft. Satellite intensity estimates continue to drop from both TAFB and SAB, but the initial intensity will remain 40 kt for this advisory, out of respect for the higher flight-level winds. Cindy has continued to move northwestward this afternoon, with the latest estimated motion at 315/14 kt. The track forecast is essentially unchanged from earlier today, as Cindy should continue this northwestward track until it opens up into a trough in 24 to 36 hours. The NHC track lies very close to the various consensus aids. This track forecast does not preclude the possibility of some possible center nudges poleward due to the enhanced convection ongoing in the northeast quadrant of the storm. Cindy might be having one last convective gasp this afternoon, as continued strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air are likely to lead to its demise. The vast majority of the guidance now suggests the storm will soon open up into a trough axis. The latest NHC intensity forecast continues to indicate dissipation after 24 hours, though this could occur sooner than indicated here. There remains a possibility of regeneration later this week near or to the north of Bermuda, but enough uncertainty exists to not show this scenario in the current official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 21.9N 59.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 23.2N 60.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 24.8N 61.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin |
