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| #1143697 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 14.Jul.2023) TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Don Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 14 2023 Don continues to display characteristics of a sheared subtropical storm. Infrared satellite imagery shows remnants of earlier convective activity are offset to the north and east of the circulation and a single burst of fresh convection has formed just east of the exposed low-level center. Subjective satellite estimate from TAFB still classify Don as a ST2.5, and the initial intensity remains at 40 kt. The cyclone has turned northward after a brief wobble westward. The motion, averaged over 12 hours, is northward at 8 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains the same. A ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic will shift westward over the next few days. Don will move around the periphery of the ridge, continuing northward, and then turning eastward and southward by the end of the forecast period. The updated track forecast has moved back east of the previous prediction, largely due to the initial position, and is close to the consensus model aids. Don has just moved over waters cooler than 25 degrees Celsius and continues to entrain dry mid-level air. Along the forecast track, sea surface temperatures are forecast to decrease over the next few days as the cyclone moves northward. Simulated satellite imagery from global models suggests the convective organization should degrade during this timeframe, though some models show Don restrengthening with the southward bringing it over warmer waters. The official intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and maintains Don`s subtropical classification through the forecast period. However, should the storm continue to lose convective coverage and organization it could become post-tropical at any time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 34.7N 47.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 35.8N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 37.1N 47.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 38.4N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 38.8N 45.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 38.7N 43.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 37.5N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 34.5N 39.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 33.4N 39.9W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci |
