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| #1143727 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 AM 15.Jul.2023) TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Don Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 500 AM AST Sat Jul 15 2023 Don appears to be holding steady in strength. The storm is producing bands of deep convection mostly on its north side, with dry air continuing to wrap into the southern half of the circulation. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, and based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. Although the storm has been wobbling around, the general motion has been northward at about 8 kt during the past 12-24 hours, and that should continue through tonight. On Sunday, a turn to the east is expected as Don moves in the flow on the north side of a subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The storm will likely turn southeastward beginning late Monday as a trough amplifies over the northeastern Atlantic and western Europe. However, the steering currents could collapse during the middle part of next week causing the storm to stall. Despite the relatively complex steering flow, the models are in general agreement and have not changed much during the past several cycles. The NHC track forecast is a little to the north of the previous one in the short term, but most of the changes were minor. This track is close to the various consensus models. Don is over relatively cool 25 degree C waters and the sea surface temperatures are expected to decrease another couple of degrees along the forecast track during the next 2 days or so. These generally unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with dry air surrounding the system should cause Don to either hold steady or lose some strength during the next 2 or 3 days. In fact, it is possible that Don becomes a post-tropical cyclone at some point during that time period. However, beyond a few days, the storm is expected to move back over slightly warmer waters, which could allow Don to restrengthen if manages to survive that long. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 35.7N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 36.9N 48.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 38.2N 48.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 39.1N 47.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 39.3N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 38.7N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 37.3N 41.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 34.3N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 33.2N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
