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| #1143853 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 15.Jul.2023) TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Don Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 15 2023 Don continues to sporadically produce bursts of convection and cling to subtropical cyclone status. The storm currently consists of an exposed low-level center with a limited area of thunderstorms in the eastern portion of the circulation. The initial intensity remains at 35 kt based on recent data from a scatterometer overpass (ASCAT-C). Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are generally not conducive for development. Sea surface temperatures are between 23-24 degrees Celsius along the forecast track for the next few days. Dry mid-level humidities from subsiding air are also expected to be quite low. However, isolated convection driven by cool upper-level temperatures could still continue for the next several days preventing Don from becoming a post-tropical cyclone. There is also a chance the storm could slightly re-strengthen in the long-term forecast when it moves southward. The official forecast is unchanged from the the previous prediction. The storm is moving northward at about 9 kt. The reasoning behind the track forecast has also not changed. A strong subtropical ridge is expected to steer Don eastward by late tomorrow and southward on Tuesday. In the 4-5 day forecast period, Don will be in a region with weak steering currents and likely linger in the same general area. The updated NHC track forecast is very similar to the last advisory forecast and the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 38.2N 48.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 39.1N 48.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 39.7N 46.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 39.3N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 38.2N 42.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 36.6N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 35.1N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 33.5N 41.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 34.2N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci |
