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| #1144074 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 17.Jul.2023) TCDAT5 Subtropical Depression Don Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 900 AM GMT Mon Jul 17 2023 Don continues to produce an area of deep convection on its east side and has generally changed little during the past several hours. Satellite imagery suggest that the circulation of Don has become elongated from east to west and confidence is low on its center position. Since the system has not changed much, the initial intensity remains 30 kt based on continuity. This estimate is a little below the latest satellite intensity guidance. The depression is moving eastward at about 8 kt on the north side of a subtropical ridge. A turn to the southeast is expected later today followed by a turn to the south tonight and Tuesday as the system moves in the flow between the ridge and an amplifying trough over the northeastern Atlantic. Don is expected to stall during the middle of the week when the steering currents weaken, but a motion to the northwest is expected later in the week when the system moves on the south side of the ridge. Regardless, Don is not expected to move much during the next several days. This forecast is fairly similar to the previous one and near the various consensus aids. Don could gradually gain strength during the next few days while it moves over slightly warmer waters and remains in low to moderate wind shear conditions. The models also show the wind field contracting, suggesting that Don could transition to a tropical cyclone in the next day or two. The environment is expected to remain marginally conducive late in the week, which should allow to Don to maintain its strength. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and below the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 39.2N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 38.6N 42.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 37.1N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 35.6N 40.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 19/0600Z 34.1N 40.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 33.5N 40.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 33.5N 41.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 35.3N 45.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 38.6N 48.7W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
