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#1144212 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 18.Jul.2023)
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
0900 UTC TUE JUL 18 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 39.6W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 145 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 39.6W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 39.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.2N 39.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 34.2N 39.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 33.8N 39.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.7N 41.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.3N 42.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 35.2N 44.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 38.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 42.0N 49.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 39.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN