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| #1144214 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 18.Jul.2023) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 900 AM GMT Tue Jul 18 2023 Convection associated with Don has decreased somewhat in coverage and organization over the past several hours, with patches of convection now occurring near the center over the northern semicircle. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 30-40 kt range, and these have changed little since the previous advisory. Based on that, the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The initial motion is now 145/10 kt. The cyclone`s motion is expected to continue curving clockwise over the next several days as it is steered by a building mid-level ridge that is forecast to shift southwestward to northwestward relative to Don. Eventually this ridge will move to the northeast and east of Don, allowing the storm to turn northwestward and eventually northward. One change in the guidance since the previous forecast is that it now shows a little more westward motion after 36 h than previously, and the new track forecast during this time is nudged a little farther to the west, There continues to be a significant spread in guidance solutions by the end of the forecast period, and the current forecast remains low-confidence in that time frame. Don is currently over sea surface temperatures of about 24C and in an area of relatively dry mid-level air. The sea surface temperatures along the forecast track increase to 25C during the next 72 h, and the cyclone could encounter a more moist air mass during that time. Based on this and the intensity guidance, the new intensity forecast shows modest intensification during the next 72 h. The forecast peak intensity of 45 kt is a compromise between the weaker SHIPS/LGEM models and the stronger HWRF/HMON/HAFS models. Overall, the new intensity forecast lies near the intensity consensus and has only minor adjustments since the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 36.3N 39.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 35.2N 39.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 34.2N 39.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 33.8N 39.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 33.7N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 20/1800Z 34.3N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 35.2N 44.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 38.0N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 42.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
