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| #1144251 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 18.Jul.2023) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 300 PM GMT Tue Jul 18 2023 Don has struggled to produce deep convection today, despite the storm moving over warmer waters, with only a few moderate bands on the eastern side of the circulation. A scatterometer pass near 1200 UTC showed maximum winds just above 30 kt, and it seems like the system is vacillating between 30 and 35 kt as an initial wind speed, based primarily on convective trends. I don`t really want to be chasing every burst of convection, so the conservative thing is to wait a little longer before downgrading it to a depression. The system should not change much in intensity over the next day or so while it encounters a slightly more conducive (but still marginal) environment. It also wouldn`t be a surprise if Don became a depression again in the short-term. Modest intensification is forecast later this week while the system encounters warmer SSTs, higher mid-level moisture, and the shear remains light or moderate. The new forecast is similar to the previous one, below the model consensus given the overall mediocre environment for strengthening. Don has turned south-southeastward at about 8 kt. The storm is about halfway through making a large anticyclonic loop over the central Atlantic, bending around a blocking ridge in the mid-latitudes. Don should move more slowly southward overnight and Wednesday as it sits beneath the ridge, then gradually accelerate northwestward and northward as it moves around the ridge. The track guidance is coming into better agreement on this course, conveniently converging somewhat on the last NHC track forecast, so no significant changes were required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 35.6N 39.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 34.6N 39.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 33.9N 39.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 33.7N 40.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 34.0N 41.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 34.7N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 35.7N 45.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 39.0N 49.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 44.0N 49.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
