|
Show Selection: |
| #1144292 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 18.Jul.2023) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 900 PM GMT Tue Jul 18 2023 Deep convection has re-developed on the eastern side of Don this afternoon, though most of the circulation is pretty skeletal. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt, close to the latest TAFB satellite classification, and hopefully the evening scatterometer passes will hit the storm for the next advisory to get a more precise estimate of the winds. The environment near Don gets slightly more conducive for strengthening during the next day or two with warmer SSTs, higher mid-level moisture, and light or moderate shear. Gradual intensification is shown through Thursday, similar to the last forecast and near or below the model consensus. At long range, the storm should pass over its own cool wake, and the environment becomes less conducive overall. The model guidance is lower on this cycle for late week, closer to the previous NHC wind speed prediction. Thus, little change in strength is shown at days 3-4, and Don should lose its deep convection around day 5 when it moves north of the Gulf Stream. Don has slowed and turned southward, now at around 6 kt. The storm should move southwestward on Wednesday and west-northwestward on Thursday due to steering from a blocking ridge in the north-central Atlantic. As the ridge slides eastward, Don is likely to head northward by Saturday and accelerate north-northeastward on Sunday. The model spread has increased on this cycle, but there`s still a tendency for the weaker model solutions to be east of the model consensus. Since the NHC intensity prediction remains on the low side of the guidance, it is reasonable for the track forecast to remain east of the model consensus, resulting in little net change to the NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 34.9N 39.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 34.1N 39.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 33.7N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 33.8N 41.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 34.3N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 35.2N 44.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 36.5N 46.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 40.5N 49.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 46.0N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Blake |
