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| #1144355 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 19.Jul.2023) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 900 AM GMT Wed Jul 19 2023 Convection associated with Don remains disorganized this morning, primarily occurring in a group of short bands in the eastern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed much since the last advisory, and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus. As Don turns more westward during the next couple of days, it should move over warmer sea surface temperatures into a somewhat more moist air mass. This should allow some gradual strengthening, and the new intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in calling for a 45 kt intensity by 48 h. It should be noted that several of the dynamical models forecast Don to get stronger than that, possibly due to them expecting Don to move west of the current forecast track into even warmer sea surface temperatures. After Don turns northward later in the forecast period, it should move north of the Gulf Stream and degenerate to a post-tropical low over cold water between 96-120 h. The initial motion is now 185/4 kt. Don should turn southwestward and westward during the next 24-36 h as the subtropical ridge builds to the northwest and north of the cyclone. This ridge should then move eastward, leaving the cyclone in a area of southeasterly to southerly flow on its west side. This should allow Don to turn northward by about 72 h and then subsequently recurve into the westerlies. The new forecast track is essentially an update of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 34.0N 39.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 33.7N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 33.7N 41.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 34.3N 42.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 35.1N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 36.4N 46.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 38.4N 48.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 43.5N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 46.6N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Beven |
