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| #1144391 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:12 AM 19.Jul.2023) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 300 PM GMT Wed Jul 19 2023 Don is becoming better organized this morning. Satellite images indicate deep convection is wrapping closer to the center, with good banding features noted in the southern semicircle. Additionally, it looks like a smaller core is forming within the larger circulation on a 1156 UTC GMI pass, which could help insulate the system from environmental dry air. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt in concert with the latest TAFB Dvorak and CIMSS ADT estimates. The stage is finally set for intensification of Don with the smaller core forming, along with the storm reaching a maximum in SST during the next day or so and encountering light shear. Gradual strengthening is shown through tomorrow, consistent with the latest guidance and a bit higher the last NHC forecast. By late Thursday, water temperatures begin to cool again, and shear is forecast to increase slightly. This is probably enough to arrest significant strengthening across the remainder of the forecast period, so the intensity forecast is leveled off through 96 h. Interestingly, the guidance has decreased since the last cycle, and the model consensus is now within 5 kt of NHC at every time period. Weakening should commence after it moves north of the Gulf Stream, and the cyclone should become post-tropical sometime on Sunday. Don has turned west-southwestward, still at about 4 kt. No significant changes were made to the last NHC forecast track as Don continues its anticyclonic loop around a blocking ridge in the north-central Atlantic. Similar to yesterday, the ECMWF-based guidance is on the right side of the envelope and the GFS-based models are on the left side. The latest corrected-consensus models are very close to the last NHC forecast track reasoning, so this forecast is essentially just an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 33.9N 39.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 33.7N 40.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 33.9N 41.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 34.6N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 35.7N 45.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 37.2N 46.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 39.2N 48.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 44.0N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 47.0N 43.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Blake |
