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| #1144530 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 20.Jul.2023) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 300 PM GMT Thu Jul 20 2023 Don has not intensified this morning, as a curved convective band north of the center has begun to weaken. However, visible satellite imagery and a recent scatterometer pass indicate that the storm remains well-organized around a clear circulation center. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates continue to support an initial intensity of 45 kt, which is unchanged from the prior advisory. However, this may be a bit generous based on the late-arriving scatterometer pass. The initial motion is now 290/7 kt. Don is expected to turn to the northwest and then northward during the next 72 h, associated with a low to mid-level ridge that is forecast to build north and east of the forecast track. The guidance has continued to shift westward after 36 h, and the forecast track after 48 h is thus shifted slightly west of the previous forecast. The forecast track represents a blend of the consensus aids and the prior forecast. After 72 h, Don is forecast to recurve northeastward and north of the mid-level ridge. Conditions continue to appear favorable for some strengthening during the next day or so, and the intensity forecast continues to indicate an increase in intensity to 50 kt during early portion of the forecast period. After 24 h, as Don begins to traverse cooler sea surface temperatures, the cyclone is forecast to cross its prior track and begin a weakening trend. By 96 h, Don is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical low and dissipate by 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 34.4N 42.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 34.9N 43.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 35.7N 45.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 37.0N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 38.6N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 40.8N 50.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 42.8N 50.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 46.7N 46.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Brown |
