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| #1144632 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 21.Jul.2023) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 500 AM AST Fri Jul 21 2023 Don has changed little in appearance during the past few hours. A band of convection has rotated around to the southern and eastern portions of the circulation. Microwave imagery indicates the storm still has a well-defined low- to mid-level center. The latest subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are unchanged from the previous advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity remains at 45 kt. The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt around the southern periphery of a strong low- to mid-level ridge. Model guidance indicates that the ridge will build to the north and east which is expected to turn Don to the northwest and then northward in the next couple of days. By day 3, the cyclone is predicted to turn northeastward in the low-level southwesterly flow ahead of a trough forecast to be over the western Atlantic. Minor adjustments have been made to the NHC track forecast and it remains close to the model consensus aids. Marginal atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear to be preventing Don from strengthening. These conditions are not expected to change much in the next day or so, and therefore the storm`s intensity is predicted to remain relatively steady. Don should begin to weaken in about 36 h when it moves to the north over cooler waters and into an environment with stronger deep-layer shear. The NHC intensity prediction is unchanged from the previous advisory and still shows Don becoming a remnant low by 72 h and dissipated by 96 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 35.4N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 36.3N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 38.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 40.0N 50.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 42.4N 50.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 23/1800Z 45.1N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 47.5N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci |
