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| #1144734 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 21.Jul.2023) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 21 2023 Don has generally changed little during the past several hours. Deep convection remains fairly well organized in curved bands that wrap around the southern half of the circulation. The initial intensity of 50 kt is based on the earlier ASCAT data and the storm`s steady nature. This value is above the latest satellite intensity estimates and could be a little generous. Don is moving northwestward at 12 kt and is located on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge situated over the north-central Atlantic. A mid- to upper-level trough over eastern Canada is expected to gradually slide eastward, eroding the western portion of the ridge. This pattern change should cause Don to turn northward on Saturday and then northeastward and eastward later in the weekend and early next week. The NHC track forecast is a little to the right of the previous one from 36 h to 72 h, trending toward the latest models. The storm could strengthen a little on Saturday while it moves over a patch of warmer water, however, any intensification should be short-lived. Don is expected to move over sharply cooler waters on Sunday and into an environment of increasing vertical wind shear early next week. These environmental conditions should cause Don to begin weakening in about 24 hours and it will likely become a post-tropical cyclone by late Sunday. The system should dissipate completely in 3 or 4 days. No change was made to the previous NHC intensity forecast and this one lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 37.4N 48.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 38.7N 49.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 41.0N 50.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 43.5N 48.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 45.6N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 24/1200Z 47.4N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 25/0000Z 48.4N 38.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
