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| #1144775 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 22.Jul.2023) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 500 AM AST Sat Jul 22 2023 Don continues to generate curved convective bands around the center, although the overall organization has not changed much during the past several hours. There has also been little change in the various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates, so the initial intensity remains a possibly generous 50 kt. The initial motion is 315/12 kt as Don is located on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge situated over the north- central Atlantic. A mid- to upper-level trough over eastern Canada is expected to move eastward and erode the western portion of the ridge during the next 24-48 h. This should allow Don to turn northward and then recurve northeastward into the westerlies. Based on the tightly clustered track guidance, the new NHC forecast is similar to, but a little faster than, the previous forecast. Don could strengthen a little during the next 12 h as it passes over the Gulf Stream. After that, the cyclone should move over much colder water and into increasing vertical wind shear. This combination should cause weakening, and the new intensity forecast calls for the system to become post-tropical between 36-48 h and degenerate into a remnant low by 60 h. The new intensity forecast has some minor adjustments from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 38.3N 49.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 39.9N 50.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 42.3N 49.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 44.6N 47.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 46.5N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 24/1800Z 47.8N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z 48.7N 36.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
