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| #1144813 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 22.Jul.2023) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 1100 AM AST Sat Jul 22 2023 Don`s convective structure has increased in organization this morning. A curved band has wrapped completely around the center with a ragged eye-like feature becoming apparent during the past couple of hours. Earlier microwave imagery also revealed this feature, but the convection surrounding it was fragmented. Subjective satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB were T3.5 (55 kt) and T3.0 (45 kt) at 1200 UTC, but given the more recent increase in organization, the initial intensity is raised to the higher end of those estimates at 55 kt. Don has made its anticipated northward turn. A northward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected today as the cyclone is steered around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. After that time, Don should turn north-northeastward and then northeastward within the mid-latitude westerlies. The dynamical model guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new NHC track is essentially an update of the previous advisory. Don is currently crossing the Gulf Stream with SSTs of around 26C. Although it is not explicitly shown below, it is possible that some slight additional strengthening occurs within the next 6-12 hours while Don is over the slightly warmer Gulf Stream waters. After that time, a sharp decrease in SSTs along the track of Don and increasing vertical wind shear should cause weakening. Don is expected to become post-tropical around the 36 hour time period and dissipate by 72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 39.1N 50.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 40.7N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 43.3N 48.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 45.5N 46.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 24/1200Z 46.8N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 25/0000Z 48.0N 38.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
