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| #1144961 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 23.Jul.2023) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 500 AM AST Sun Jul 23 2023 Don is moving over much cooler water, and its structure is rapidly deteriorating. While the latest satellite pictures still show a well-defined center, the eyewall convection has fallen apart and become more fragmented. Dvorak estimates are falling quickly, and the initial wind speed is lowered to 55 kt. Don should continue to rapidly weaken as it moves over very cool waters with increasing shear, and it should lose any remaining deep convection within 24 hours and become a post-tropical cyclone. The new forecast is lower than the previous one, closest to the GFS model. The storm continues moving north-northeast, now at 14 kt. Don should move faster to the northeast today and east-northeast on Monday due steering flow mostly around the northern side of the subtropical ridge. Guidance is tightly packed around the previous forecast, and little change was made for this advisory, except to move up dissipation 12 hours based on the global model fields. If you were thinking Don has been around a while considering the time of year, you`d be right. The storm is moving up the list of longest-lasting tropical cyclones on record for July (including subtropical stages). Preliminarily, Don is tied for 10th, and the cyclone could make the top 5 longest-lasting for July if it lasts through early Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 42.6N 48.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 44.5N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 46.4N 44.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 24/1800Z 47.5N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
