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| #1145000 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 23.Jul.2023) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 1100 AM AST Sun Jul 23 2023 Tropical Storm Don continues to move north-northeast over cooling sea surface temperatures. Visible and infrared satellite imagery still show a well-defined center, with a convective band mainly concentrated on the northern and eastern side of the system. The subjective Dvorak satellite estimates for this advisory were steady from TAFB at T3.5/55 kt, with SAB coming in a little lower. Given that there is still a well-defined center, and the aforementioned convective band, the initial intensity for this advisory remains at 55 kt. Don should begin to rapidly weaken as it moves over very cool waters with increasing vertical wind shear. Simulated satellite imagery from both the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that it should lose any remaining deep convection within 24 hours and become a post-tropical cyclone. The intensity forecast remains similar to the previous forecast, with Don dissipating in 48 hours. The system is moving north-northeast, at 14 kt. Don will begin to increase forward speed to the northeast later today and east-northeast tomorrow due to the steering flow around the northern side of the subtropical ridge. Guidance remains tightly clustered around the previous forecast, and there were very little changes made this advisory. The storm is moving up the list of longest-lasting tropical cyclones on record for July (including subtropical stages). Preliminarily, Don is tied for 10th, and the cyclone could make the top 5 longest-lasting for July if it lasts through early Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 43.9N 47.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 45.5N 45.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 47.1N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 25/0000Z 48.3N 37.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/Pasch |
