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| #1145108 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 AM 24.Jul.2023) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 900 AM GMT Mon Jul 24 2023 Deep convection has evaporated near Don, though it hasn`t been free of convection long enough to declare it post-tropical yet. The initial wind speed is lowered to 40 kt, in concert with the Dvorak estimates that are decreasing as fast as the rules allow. Don should become post-tropical soon and continue to weaken due to persistent cold waters and shear. The storm is moving east-northeastward at about 16 kt, and that general motion is likely to persist until the system dissipates in about a day. All of the global models show Don opening up into a trough in 18-24 hours, so the dissipation phase is moved to that time. No other significant changes were made to the forecast. Don has been a very long-lasting tropical cyclone (including subtropical stages) for the month of July. Preliminary data indicate that the storm is the 5th longest-lasting system on record for the month, just behind Emily of 2005. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 47.0N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 47.9N 39.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
