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| #1148526 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 20.Aug.2023) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023 500 AM AST Sun Aug 20 2023 The center of the depression remains fully exposed in satellite imagery this morning, with the associated convection displaced well to the east by strong westerly shear. Given the lack of improvement in the cyclone`s satellite presentation, and a blend of the latest objective and subjective satellite estimates, the initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. The strong deep-layer westerly shear plaguing the depression is forecast to increase to over 40 kt later today. This, combined with relatively dry mid-level air in the surrounding environment, will make it difficult for the cyclone to sustain organized convection going forward. Therefore, the official forecast now calls for the system to degenerate to a remnant low in 24 h, in agreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF model-simulated satellite imagery. The global models suggest the weak low is likely to open into a trough soon thereafter, and so this update shows dissipation in 36 h. The depression has moved a bit south of due west over the past several hours, but its long-term motion remains westward at 13 kt. This general motion is expected to continue until dissipation occurs, as the system moves within low-level easterly flow to the south of a subtropical ridge. Given the recent motion toward the west-southwest, this updated track forecast lies to the south of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 16.8N 52.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 17.0N 54.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 17.3N 56.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
