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| #1148558 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 20.Aug.2023) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072023 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 20 2023 The large area of low pressure we have been monitoring over the last several days to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands has finally developed a well-defined circulation per recently received satellite wind data. In addition, the scatterometer wind data also suggest the system has developed a robust wind field on its northern semicircle, with ASCAT-B/C both showing believable wind retrievals in the 40-45 kt range. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Emily this morning with maximum sustained winds of 45 kt, which is in good agreement with the latest 1200 UTC TAFB Dvorak fix. The estimated motion of the tropical storm is slowly off to the west-northwest, at 300/9 kt. Over the next several days, Emily should maintain a general west-northwestward motion as it remains steered by a low-level ridge centered to its north. A gradual turn to the north is anticipated after Emily becomes a remnant low, rounding the southern periphery of this subtropical ridge. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the initial track forecast lies in between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Emily might already be near its peak intensity, as vertical wind shear is expected to substantially increase over the cyclone in the next 24-36 hours as it remains embedded in a fairly dry mid-level environment. While it is possible a bit more intensification occurs today, it seems more likely the system will soon succumb to the increasingly hostile environment over the next several days. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest Emily will cease to produce organized convection in about 48 hours, and the official intensity forecast shows it becoming a post-tropical remnant low at that time. There is some chance the environment becomes more favorable again in 4-5 days, but a regeneration scenario will not be shown in the official forecast for now. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 19.5N 38.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 20.3N 39.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 20.9N 41.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 21.5N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 22.5N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0000Z 23.6N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z 25.1N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z 29.8N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1200Z 36.0N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin |
