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| #1148718 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:32 AM 21.Aug.2023) TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072023 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023 Emily has been devoid of deep convection for nearly 15 hours and no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. Although sea surface temperatures are sufficiently warm to support occasional bursts of convection, strong wind shear and a very dry environment should prevent it from re-organizing as a tropical cyclone for at least the next couple days. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on ASCAT-B data valid at 1200 UTC. In about 3 days, the remnant low is forecast to turn northward as it encounters a deep-layer trough over the central Atlantic. While it turns, Emily could briefly encounter a more favorable upper-level wind pattern, which could support the redevelopment of convection. However, the low-level center may also become stretched and ill-defined at the same time. Regeneration as a tropical cyclone does not appear likely enough to explicitly forecast it at this time. Information on the potential for regeneration will be included in future Tropical Weather Outlooks, if necessary. Future information on Emily can also be found in High Seas forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center and Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 21.1N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 22/0000Z 21.6N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 22/1200Z 22.5N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/0000Z 23.6N 47.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1200Z 25.2N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/0000Z 27.1N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1200Z 29.5N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky |
