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| #1148774 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 21.Aug.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago and data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the system now has a closed and fairly well-defined center of circulation. In addition, deep convection has been persisting over the central and western Gulf of Mexico. The system now meets the definition of a tropical depression, and the initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt. The far outer bands of the depression are nearing the coast of Texas and northern Mexico, and they are expected to begin moving inland tonight. The depression is moving fairly quickly to the west at 16 kt on the south side of a strong mid-level ridge located over the central United States. A continued quick west or west-northwest motion is expected, taking the system over southern Texas by midday Tuesday. The models are in fairly good agreement, and little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast. Strengthening is expected, but the limited time over water and its current broad structure suggest that rapid intensification is unlikely. The system is expected to move inland between the 12- and 24-hour points so it is possible that the system gets a little stronger than the forecast intensity values. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall from the depression is expected across South Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday, and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding. Across portions of northern Coahuila and northern Nuevo Leon in Mexico, flash flooding with possible landslides in mountainous terrain is expected Tuesday into Wednesday. 2. Coastal flooding is possible along the south Texas coast tonight through Tuesday morning. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and are possible in the watch area beginning early Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 25.2N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 25.8N 94.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 26.8N 98.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/0600Z 28.1N 101.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
