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| #1148775 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 21.Aug.2023) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT REACHES SOUTH TEXAS... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 91.6W ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM ESE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, Texas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Port O'Connor to Sargent, Texas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in eastern Texas and northern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 91.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A fast motion to the west is expected to continue, and the system is forecast to move inland over south Texas by midday Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches the Texas coast. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 7 inches, across South Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday. Areas of flash flooding will be possible. Across Mexico, rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches, are expected across portions of northern Coahuila and northern Nuevo Leon on Tuesday and Wednesday. Areas of flash flooding are expected. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and are possible in the watch area early Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of Rio Grande to Sargent, including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across south Texas on Tuesday. SURF: Large swells generated by the depression will affect portions of southern Texas tonight through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
