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| #1148823 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 PM 21.Aug.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023 Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is becoming better organized. Deep convection has been increasing near the mid-level center, with the apparent low-level center displaced on the south side of the convective mass. The latest satellite classifications still support an intensity of 30 kt, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to be in the area overnight for a more detailed look at the wind field. The depression is moving fairly quickly to the west-northwest at 16 kt on the south side of a strong mid-level ridge located over the central United States. This general motion should continue through landfall tomorrow by midday. The guidance has shifted a bit to the north on this cycle, and the NHC forecast follows the recent trends. The system should strengthen soonb through landfall over the warm Gulf waters, though its time is limited. It should be noted that the cyclone moves inland between the 12- and 24-hour points so it is possible that the system gets a little stronger than the forecast intensity values below. No noteworthy changes were required to the last NHC wind speed forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Nine is expected across South Texas through early Wednesday, and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding. Across portions of northern Coahuila and northern Nuevo Leon in Mexico, flash flooding with possible landslides in mountainous terrain is expected Tuesday through Wednesday. 2. Coastal flooding is possible along the south Texas coast tonight through Tuesday evening. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and are possible in the watch area beginning early Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 25.7N 93.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 26.3N 96.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 27.3N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1200Z 29.0N 103.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
