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| #1148871 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 22.Aug.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harold Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Air Force Hurricane Hunter wind observations indicate that the cyclone strengthened to a tropical storm earlier this morning. However, the circulation is not very well defined and the low-level center is somewhat elongated from south to north. Imagery from the Brownsville WSR-88D radar shows broad cyclonic turning, with curved rain bands moving onshore of the south Texas coast. Harold is embedded in strong deep-layer easterlies on the southern periphery of a large anticyclone over the east-central United States. As a result, the cyclone is moving fairly briskly toward the west-northwest at around 285/16 kt. This general motion should continue through tonight, and the official forecast is quite similar to the previous one. This is also very close to the latest corrected consensus, HCCA prediction. The system still has a short time to strengthen over the warm Gulf waters, and the latest SHIPS guidance shows slight strengthening within the next 12 hours. This is reflected in the official forecast. Since the cyclone does not have a well-defined inner core, however, rapid intensification is not likely before landfall. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Harold is expected across South Texas through early Wednesday, and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding. Across portions of northern Coahuila and northern Nuevo Leon in Mexico, flash flooding with possible landslides in mountainous terrain is expected Tuesday through Wednesday. 2. Coastal flooding is possible along the south Texas coast today through Tuesday evening. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area,and are possible in the watch area, within a few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 25.8N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 26.5N 97.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/0600Z 27.8N 101.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1800Z 29.5N 104.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
