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| #1148921 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 22.Aug.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harold Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023 1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 Radar data from Brownsville, Texas, indicate that the center of Harold reformed to the north of the previous Air Force Hurricane Hunter fixes and has now made landfall over Padre Island, Texas between Port Mansfield and Corpus Christi. The NOAA Buoy at Padre Island recently reported sustained tropical-storm-force winds with gusts around 50 kt, and tropical-storm-force have very recently been reported along portions of the south Texas coast. Bands of heavy rain are spreading inland over south Texas, mostly to the north of the center. The initial intensity is set at 45 kt based on radar data and surface observations. Harold is moving quickly to the west-northwest at 18 kt in the flow on the south side of a strong mid-level ridge. The storm is expected to move farther inland across southern Texas and northern Mexico during the next day or so as it remains on the south side of the ridge. Since the center of the storm has reached the coast, the window for strengthening has closed. Land interaction should cause a quick decay, and Harold is expected to become a tropical depression later today and dissipate on Wednesday. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected across south Texas through early Wednesday, and may produce areas of flash and urban flooding. Across portions of northern Coahuila and northern Nuevo Leon in Mexico, flash flooding with possible landslides in mountainous terrain is expected through Wednesday. 2. Coastal flooding is possible along the south Texas coast through this afternoon. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning area during the next several hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 27.1N 97.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...ON THE COAST 12H 23/0000Z 27.7N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/1200Z 29.5N 103.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
