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| #1149343 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 25.Aug.2023) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 500 AM AST Fri Aug 25 2023 Franklin has generally changed little during the past several hours. The storm remains strongly sheared with the low-level center partially exposed near the western edge of the main area of deep convection. Cloud tops are quite cold on the system`s east side, but the storm continues to lack convective symmetry. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on the earlier Air Force reconnaissance data, which is a little above the current satellite intensity estimates. The storm is moving slowly to the east-northeast at about 5 kt in weak steering currents near the base of a broad mid- to upper-level trough. A north to north-northwest motion is expected to commence tonight or early Saturday as ridging builds to the east of Franklin over the central Atlantic. This motion should bring the core of the system to the west of Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. The storm is likely to turn northeastward and accelerate by the middle of next week when it should move in the faster flow between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over eastern Canada and the northeast U.S. In general, the models have shifted westward this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction. Continued moderate to strong westerly vertical wind shear should limit strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. However, more significant strengthening seems likely in a day or two when the shear decreases while Franklin remains over warm water and in a relatively moist environment. Franklin is expected to become a hurricane over the weekend and should reach a peak intensity near major hurricane strength early next week. The strengthening trend should end around day 4, at which time the storm is forecast to begin moving over cooler waters and into an environment of stronger shear. The intensity models are in fairly good agreement, and this forecast is quite similar to the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 22.7N 68.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 22.8N 67.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 23.3N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 24.1N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 25.3N 67.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 27/1800Z 26.9N 68.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 28.6N 68.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 33.0N 68.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 39.2N 63.9W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
