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| #1149417 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 25.Aug.2023) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 500 PM AST Fri Aug 25 2023 Franklin`s low-level center remains exposed this afternoon on visible satellite imagery. Strong vertical wind shear continues to affect the asymmetric system, with the deep convection displaced on the eastern side of the storm. The Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters have been in the system much of the day and show that the flight-level winds and pressure have remained steady. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB also remain unchanged from the previous advisory. Given the data from the Hurricane Hunters and these satellite estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory remains at 45 kt. The storm is moving slowly to the east-northeast at about 5 kt, around the base of a broad mid- to upper-level trough. This east-northeast to northeast motion is expected to continue through tonight as ridging builds to the east of Franklin over the central Atlantic and the trough drops southwestward. Franklin will then turn more northward late this weekend into early next week, with the core of the system probably moving to the west of Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. By the middle of next week, Franklin is forecast to turn to the northeast and accelerate between the ridge and a mid-latitude trough over eastern Canada and the northeast U.S. The NHC track forecast has shifted slightly eastward in the short term given the recent motion. At long range, the guidance envelope and consensus aids this cycle were to the right of the previous forecast track. The official NHC forecast was adjusted slightly to the east, but lies west of the consensus aids for this cycle. Strong westerly vertical wind shear should remain over Franklin for the next 24 hours or so, which will probably limit much strengthening. In a day or two, strengthening is forecast as the wind shear decreases and Franklin remains over very warm sea surface temperatures. Franklin is expected to become a hurricane early next week and should reach a peak intensity near major hurricane strength by day 4. By the end of the forecast period, a gradual weakening trend is forecast as Franklin moves over cooler waters and into a stronger vertical wind shear environment. The intensity guidance was slightly weaker in the short term, and the official intensity forecast followed these trends. In the long term, the peak intensity forecast remains unchanged and near the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 21.9N 67.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 22.0N 66.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 22.8N 66.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 23.8N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 25.4N 67.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 27.3N 68.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 29.2N 68.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 33.0N 67.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 37.8N 62.7W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Blake |
