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| #1149482 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 AM 26.Aug.2023) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 500 AM AST Sat Aug 26 2023 Franklin is gradually getting better organized. During the past couple of days, deep convection has been mainly confined to the east of the center. However, there has been a change recently with the convective pattern becoming a little more symmetric, likely due to a decrease in vertical wind shear. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB have increased to 3.5/55 kt, and the initial intensity is raised to that value. The storm is still moving east-northeastward at 6 kt, but a sharp northward turn is expected to occur later today as a ridge builds to the east of the system over the central Atlantic. A northward to north-northwestward motion is forecast during the next few days as the storm moves along the western periphery of the ridge, taking it to the west of Bermuda on Tuesday. By the middle of next week, a faster northeastward motion is expected when Franklin moves in the flow between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S. The track models have shifted to the west this cycle, and the NHC track forecast follows that theme and is a little slower than the previous one at days 4 and 5. Franklin is expected to steadily strengthen during the next few days as the vertical wind shear becomes light while the storm remains over warm water and in a relatively moist environment. Franklin will likely become a hurricane by tonight and possibly a major hurricane early next week. The strengthening trend should end in 3 to 4 days when the shear is expected to increase and weakening should commence in 4 to 5 days when Franklin is forecast to move over much cooler waters. The intensity models are higher this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been nudged upward, close to the IVCN and HCCA models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 22.8N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 23.4N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 24.6N 66.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 26.0N 67.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 27.5N 68.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 29.3N 68.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 31.0N 68.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 34.8N 66.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 31/0600Z 39.9N 58.1W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
