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| #1149556 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 PM 26.Aug.2023) TCDAT3 Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 500 PM AST Sat Aug 26 2023 Visible and microwave satellite imagery show Franklin is becoming a well organized hurricane. AMSR2 microwave data showed a closed mid-level core that was vertically aligned with the low-level center. The latest visible imagery shows a dimple where an eye may be trying to develop. Deep convection has become more symmetrical, wrapping around the center throughout the day. NOAA Hurricane Hunters were in the system earlier this afternoon, with flight-level winds and SFMR winds supporting an intensity of around 70 kt. The UW-CIMSS ADT objective satellite estimates have been rising this afternoon as well. Given the improved satellite structure combined with the earlier data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters, the initial intensity is raised to 75 kt for this advisory. NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be in the system later this evening. Franklin is moving north-northwestward at 7 kt. A north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast during the next few days as the storm moves along the western periphery of a mid-level ridge, taking it to the west of Bermuda on Tuesday. By the middle of next week, a faster northeast to east-northeast motion is expected between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. In the short range, models once again have trended westward, and the official NHC forecast has been nudged west as well. For the long term, models, including the GFS and ECMWF, have made a fairly large shift to the right. The NHC track was shifted in that direction in the long term, but remains to the left of the consensus aids. The confidence of the long-term forecast track is lower than usual. Franklin has been steadily strengthening throughout the day. Further strengthening is forecast during the next few days with lower vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures in the western Atlantic. Franklin is forecast to become a major hurricane early next week. The strengthening trend should end in about 3 to 4 days with shear expected to increase over the system at that time. By day 5, the current forecast track takes the system over much cooler SSTs. However, the intensity in the long range will be dependent on the eventual forecast track of Franklin. The current intensity forecast lies near the consensus aids, but still slightly lower than the HCCA aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 23.8N 67.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 24.7N 68.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 25.9N 68.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 27.1N 69.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 28.7N 69.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 30.3N 69.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 32.0N 69.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 35.2N 65.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 31/1800Z 39.1N 56.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Pasch |
